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[Editor's note: Written 6 months before the health care bill was
signed, it is amazing to see how prescient Hershel was.]
October, 2009:
I've been trying to figure out where this health care monstrosity is
heading -- where it will finally land. And it ain't easy. But I think I
have it figured out. And once again, I am ahead of the pack in my
analysis.
Caveat: I hate it when pundits and politicians make predictions
as if they were facts. You know, like "If we do not pass this stimulus
bill, unemployment will rise to 9%." Or, "I will not sign any health care
legislation that is not revenue neutral." Or, "Taxes on people making
less than $250,000 will not go up." Or, "I will close the prison camp at
Guantanamo Bay by January 22, 2010."
Actually, those last three are promises, not predictions -- worse yet than
stating a prediction as if it were a fact. But that's another matter.
Anyway, I am making what I choose to call a projection, not a prediction.
It's not a blind shot in the dark. But I am looking at the status of the
debate as it now stands, my understanding of the players and the politics,
and projecting how I believe will end. At least, in the short run.
1. First and foremost... it's a absolute: Congress will pass and the
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