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Last month, I commented about those annoying inserts in magazines. This past Sunday, Andy Rooney complained about them in his piece on "60 Minutes." We're getting through to them, friends. Power to the boomers!
Meanwhile, as Paul Harvey says, we are between acute crises this week. So I thought I'd step back and offer my view of where the Internet is going. Here's how I see it:
The biggest bottleneck relating to the Internet, and therefore the one getting the most attention, is speed. We all know how long it takes to load pages filled with graphics. And boy, when you add sound and video to it... you know why it is called the "World Wide Wait."
There are several solutions to this problem on the drawing board - none of them involves the judicious of the use of graphics or more efficient computer programming - heaven forbid. One involves existing telephone lines; another involves cable. I don't know which will prevail, but I suspect that whoever or whichever one does will control the Internet.... and make a fortune.
We pioneers of the Internet have adjusted to the pecularities of Yahoo (and other search engines), and having to enter "http://www....." to get to a site. But this is the Model-T era. Five years from now, this will seem horribly awkward. Those who follow in our steps will wonder how we ever got anything done. (Sometimes I wonder the same thing even now.)
The masses in the 21st century will want to surf the Internet the way they surf channels on their television. If you have watched cable television in a motel recently, you have perhaps seen the preview channel. (I don't know; maybe home cable systems offer something similar. At my house, we are still cable-deficient.) The preview channel displays a listing of what is playing on each channel, and sometimes a sample of a program on one half of the screen. That's the model that "they" will use when the Internet goes to the next level.
A few years down the road, you'll have the opportunity to access the Internet at a tremendous speed. Let's suppose you select the same Internet Service Provider (ISP) that provides your long distance phone service; oh, say, perhaps... AT&T. You'll dial a number on your telephone to setup your Internet service. When you do so, an automated message will tell you to turn your computer on, attach a phone line to your computer, and press the start key. When you do that, the system at the other end will download the necessary software to your computer and create an icon on your desktop. Five minutes later, you're ready to surf. You click the icon and the software will connect you to the home page of the ISP. This home page will be like the cable television preview channel... only it will be a lot more sophisticated.
The preview page will display the name, brief description and pictures of dozens of sites. Of course, there will be graphics, sound, and video to grab your attention, too. It'll be just like television, only more sophisticated. You can click a specific preview to bring up that site; it'll take only a second or two. You will also be able to add your favorite sites to this preview list, and enter key words to perform a sophisticated search of selected sites on the web. But most people will not use this feature very often... too complicated and cumbersome. And no, you can't bypass the preview page. The ISP's home page will be the first thing you see every time you connect, like it or not. Most people will have no objection to this; they won't know any better.
And I bet it will be dirt cheap. There will be price wars; ISP's will be begging you to let them into your home. Maybe it'll be free; maybe they'll pay you for inviting them into your computer! Sounds terrific, doesn't it? Well, maybe; and maybe not.
Of course, the preview screen cannot display all the sites on the Internet... or even one-tenth of one percent of them. So who decides which sites will appear on the preview? The ISP, that's who. And how will they decide? Money, that's how. Big money. Commercial Internet sites will pay ISP's thousands and thousands of dollars to get the ISP to feature their site. And of course, there will be advertising on the preview site, too. Look for the likes of Louie the Lizzard and that obnoxious Burger King ad (this time with a 3-dimensional set of teeth chomping loudly in your face - and I mean in-your-face!) to appear on the preview page, too. And that's how the ISP's will make their money. More money than they know what to do with.
Oh, maybe you will be able to specify which categories of sites you want to see in the preview, and which ones to avoid - you know: the equivalent of the V-chip. But in the big picture, you will see what they want you to see. And they want you to see whatever they get paid to show you.
It will be very big... and very clean... very commercial... and very easy. And very controlled.
So that means that the sites with the resources to pay the ISP's big bucks will do so... and get even bigger. And the smaller sites that cannot afford to advertise with the ISP's... oh, nobody will stop them from being on the Internet. But virtually nobody will visit their sites, either. We get a lot of hits at BBHQ from people doing a Yahoo search on the sixties. But in the future, if we can't afford to pay an ISP to feature our site on their preview, precious few people will go beyond what their ISP shovels up. We won't be even a blip on the screen.
Right now, there are about 4,500 ISP's in the U.S. By the end of this decade, I'd bet the number will be down to less than 3,000. And when the phone and cable companies jump in with both feet, the bottom will drop out. It'll happen; and it'll happen fast.
That may mean that at the end of the next decade, the Internet will be controlled by 8-10 ISP's, and half a dozen corporations who own 80% of the sites on the Internet (or at last 80% of the ones that generate noticeable traffic.) And when this happens, one of the greatest features of the Internet will be gone forever. Most of the creative, private sites will be relegated to the invisible underground of the Internet. We'll talk about the nineties as the good old days of the Internet, and wonder how we let it get out of control.
And that's if the government doesn't get involved. If it does, it will be even worse.
I have seen the future, and it is more than a little disturbing.
If you want to write more, we're open to offerings from other boomers. If you have something to say of interest to boomers, write it as well as you can in 500-800 words, and send it to us. We can't guarantee we'll publish it, but we'll surely consider it.
Hershel will have something else to say on Monday, July 27; mark your calendar to come back to BBHQ every Monday.
| The BBHQ Album of the Month is "Old Friends Live on Stage (Deluxe Edition) (2 CD/1 DVD)," by Simon & Garfunkel. If you were fortunate enough to see them in concert last year, I do not have to sell you. The concert was terrific! This album collection includes 55 songs, plus their new recording, "Citizen of the Planet," and one of the songs sung by the Everly Brothers during the concert. The DVD was recorded during their concert in Madison Square Garden in 2003. For any S&G fan, this is a must have! But then, you knew that already, didn't you? |
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The BBHQ Book of the Month is
"Vinyl Highway," by
Dee Dee Phelps. You remember her as Dee Dee, of Dick and Dee Dee.
Together, they took a decade long ride on the rock and roll roller
coaster. It was a heck of a ride! Dick Clark, Quincy Jones, the Beach
Boys, Glenn Campbell, Dionne Warwick, Bobby Vinton... Dick and Dee Dee
rubbed shoulders with all of them. This is her "behind the scenes" story.
It's pretty cool.
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Copyright © 1998 Baby Boomer HeadQuarters (BBHQ) All rights reserved.
rev. 11/29/98